Are mortgage rates going up or down in 2026?

As of June 11, 2026, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed average at 6.52 percent, the third increase in four weeks. Inflation hit a three-year high in May at 4.2 percent year over year, which gives the Federal Reserve little room to cut. Rates may ease later in 2026, but no one can guarantee timing or direction.

Is Sacramento a buyer's market or a seller's market right now?

Per Realtor.com data released June 11, 2026, the South and West regions of the U.S. have tilted toward buyers. Sacramento sits inside that buyer-leaning western market. Homes are now typically selling below list price, and sellers are offering more negotiating room than they have in years.

What about New Jersey? Is it a buyer's market in 2026?

No. The Northeast is the one U.S. region where homes are still selling above list price, according to Realtor.com. New Jersey buyers in Bergen, Hudson, Essex, Morris, and similar high-demand counties continue to face competitive offers and limited inventory. The strategy in NJ is different from California in 2026.

Should I wait for rates to drop before buying?

That depends on your local market, your timeline, and your rent. In California's softer 2026 market, the negotiating leverage available today may offset waiting for a small rate drop. In New Jersey's still-competitive market, waiting carries the risk of further price increases. Every buyer's math is different.

How fast does a home need to sell for the buyer to lose leverage?

Realtor.com found that homes going under contract within the first four weeks tend to sell about 1.8 percent above the typical sale price. By the 18-week mark, sellers are typically accepting about 1.3 percent less than they wanted. Speed favors sellers in the early weeks; time favors buyers.

What does this mean for first-time buyers using DPA?

In a buyer-leaning California market, sellers are more willing to provide closing-cost credits that can be redirected to a 2-1 buydown or to cover most of the cash to close. Stacked with CalHFA MyHome, GSFA Platinum, SHRA programs, or NJHMFA in New Jersey, the cash gap is often smaller than first-time buyers expect.

Mortgage Rates Update: What June 2026 Means for CA and NJ Buyers

Where rates actually are

Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) data for the week ending June 11 shows the 30-year fixed at 6.52 percent, the third increase in four weeks. The bump came after the Labor Department reported May consumer prices rose 4.2 percent year over year, the highest inflation reading in three years. Persistent inflation means the Federal Reserve has limited room to cut rates, which keeps upward pressure on mortgage pricing.

But here is what the news is missing

Realtor.com analysis released the same week shows sellers can no longer count on list price. The typical home is selling for less than the asking price. That is a stark reversal from 2021-2022. The shift gives buyers negotiation room that has not existed in years.

Two specific data points worth knowing: a home under contract within the first four weeks comes in about 1.8 percent stronger against asking than the average sale. By week 18, sellers typically accept around 1.3 percent below their target. Time on market matters now.

Regional split: West and South favor buyers, Northeast still favors sellers

The leverage shift is not uniform. According to Realtor.com, the South and West (which includes California) have tilted firmly toward buyers. The Northeast, including most of New Jersey, is the one region where homes still tend to clear above list price. The Midwest sits between, expected to swing back toward sellers later in 2026.

For Sacramento, Roseville, Elk Grove, and the California metros, this means more negotiation room: higher seller credit asks (which can fund 2-1 buydowns), longer inspection periods, and contingencies that protect the buyer. For Bergen, Hudson, Essex, and the rest of North Jersey, the dynamic is closer to pre-pandemic normal: sellers still hold leverage but the bidding-war frenzy of 2021 is gone.

What you can do with rates in the mid-sixes

BiggerPockets Chief Investment Officer Dave Meyer summed it up to TheStreet: "People have been waiting four years for rates to fall. I have been trying to tell people that is probably not happening. Once you accept that reality, opportunities become much easier to see. Instead of saying, mortgage rates are going to save me, you ask, what can I do with rates in the mid-sixes?"

Concretely: 2-1 buydown funded by a seller credit can cut your effective Year 1 rate from 6.52 to roughly 4.5 percent. Permanent rate buydowns paid with seller credits can shave 0.5-0.75 percent off the rate for the life of the loan. DPA stacking can reduce cash to close by tens of thousands. The tools work TODAY at TODAY rates.

What we are telling our California and New Jersey buyers right now

California buyers (Sacramento, Roseville, Folsom, Elk Grove, Davis, San Diego, LA metros): push for 3-4 percent seller credits, split between closing costs and a 2-1 buydown. Layer CalHFA MyHome or GSFA Platinum on top. The math works in this market.

New Jersey buyers (Bergen, Hudson, Essex, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Somerset counties): the NJHMFA $22K stack (with First Generation add-on) is the single biggest lever. Layer it with a 3 percent seller credit and FHA 3.5 percent down. Cash to close commonly lands in the $5K-$10K range.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I wait for rates to drop?

Probably not. Rate forecasts have been wrong repeatedly since 2022. Better question: what can you do with rates in the mid-sixes right now, while seller leverage exists?

Are seller credits a buyer rip-off in disguise?

No. Seller credits, properly structured, fund a buydown that reduces your effective monthly payment for years. The seller is exchanging dollars they would not have gotten anyway (because the market shifted) for a faster, cleaner close.

How long will the buyer-favorable market last?

Unknown. Realtor.com data suggests the Midwest swings back to sellers later in 2026. California and the South are likely to stay buyer-favorable longer, but no one can predict timing precisely. The leverage is real RIGHT NOW.

What if rates DO drop after I buy?

You refinance. Refinancing is built into the mortgage system. Lock in the house at todays leverage, refinance the rate later if conditions warrant.

Does this apply to investment purchases or just primary residences?

Both. The leverage shift applies across the market. Investors are seeing more negotiation room than they have in years, especially in markets like Sacramento where rental demand stays strong.

Want a real answer for your situation?

Connect with Ken Clark Jr. and the #ChampionsofLoans team at PRMG Mortgage. The right strategy starts with a conversation, not a guess.

Schedule a 20-Minute Strategy Call Check My DPA Eligibility

Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS; Realtor.com June 2026 Research; TheStreet, June 13, 2026.

This article is for educational purposes only and is not a commitment to lend or guarantee of approval. Loan programs, rates, terms, and eligibility requirements are subject to change. Equal Housing Opportunity. PRMG Mortgage. NMLS 225375. Ken Clark Jr. NMLS #225375.

Mortgage rates in June 2026: what California and NJ buyers should know